A new report from Navigant Research examines the global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) category, providing global market forecasts for annual sales and vehicle populations, segmented by country and powertrain type, through 2035.
In terms of cost, reliability, efficiency, and ready availability of fueling options, the benefits of conventional diesel in certain truck and bus applications set a high bar for alternatives. However, governments around the world are tightening emissions restrictions and encouraging the transition away from gasoline or diesel. According to a new report from Navigant Research, electric drive options have shown the most rapid growth in recent years, with the commercial vehicle sector benefiting from the investments made to improve lithium ion battery technology.
“Electric drive commercial vehicles are finally reaping the benefits of the significant investments made in electric drive systems for passenger cars,” says Lisa Jerram, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. “While most markets remain in a trial or early adoption phase of plug-in electric trucks and buses, cost reductions and performance improvements are attracting increased interest from fleets and cities.”
Alternative fuels such as natural gas and propane are still expected to outsell electric drive powertrains through most of the forecast period, but electric drive options will have much higher growth, even when excluding China with its dominant market share of electric drive medium and heavy-duty vehicles. According to the report, electric drive truck and bus sales are projected to surpass alternative fuels by 2030, although all these powertrains will remain under 25 percent of total truck and bus sales.
The report, Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles, analyzes the global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) market by four major categories: medium duty (MD) trucks, heavy duty (HD) trucks, MD buses, and HD buses. Each of these categories is also broken down into 10 powertrain types: conventional gasoline, gasoline hybrid, gasoline plug-in hybrid, conventional diesel, diesel hybrid, diesel plug-in hybrid, battery electric, natural gas, propane, and hydrogen fuel cells. Global market forecasts for annual sales and vehicle population, segmented by country and powertrain type, extend through 2035. The Excel databook accompanying this report also includes pivot tables for annual sales and population segmented by country, vehicle segment, and powertrain type. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.
About Navigant Research
Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, Navigant Research focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology markets. The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Energy Technologies, Utility Transformations, Transportation Efficiencies, and Buildings Innovations sectors. Additional information about Navigant Research can be found at www.navigantresearch.com.